Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 54688.628949 57957.023779 61233.131521 64760.701770 68449.023113 72188.912358 76265.112208
2024-10-06 49939.337908 54965.147033 60152.020848 65896.538971 72071.835418 78502.033250 85695.172233
2024-10-13 46248.472060 52454.477873 59008.385035 66427.727801 74575.353450 83232.153174 93107.063309
2024-10-20 43092.607921 50138.104211 57724.549162 66471.626339 76248.439791 86809.519191 99049.462790
2024-10-27 40350.580720 48024.571765 56431.004698 66280.532548 77459.896181 89709.572764 104100.837356
2024-11-03 38777.661436 47080.263083 56312.915338 67282.296470 79898.336202 93891.885555 110522.830983
2024-11-10 37280.704770 46106.207589 56057.456580 68032.775166 81972.703077 97606.541982 116381.276195
2024-11-17 35742.402982 44984.761408 55543.599530 68403.616451 83542.698625 100696.511741 121495.522798
2024-11-24 34160.338246 43724.097666 54788.321023 68418.952562 84637.107674 103192.150902 125893.879311
2024-12-01 32890.072310 42770.297951 54336.044390 68737.235475 86042.243216 106018.059250 130661.173276
2024-12-08 31588.676608 41716.274406 53707.845652 68793.671302 87094.044811 108399.650240 134891.129658
2024-12-15 30865.806395 41336.158429 53862.427117 69767.571269 89226.465098 112053.765945 140636.782383
2024-12-22 29645.942028 40303.501499 53195.620054 69727.577147 90136.308953 114270.831571 144714.071021
2024-12-29 29066.001148 40053.413012 53477.275197 70843.512259 92454.614112 118193.429511 150872.129825
2025-01-05 28255.776267 39474.075525 53318.224864 71387.552708 94054.620113 121243.208876 155986.355454
2025-01-12 27266.463928 38624.511206 52783.917933 71430.104628 95009.377252 123492.926147 160125.457749
2025-01-19 26226.741515 37670.390993 52081.235205 71226.857330 95630.325000 125315.272857 163734.083658
2025-01-26 25801.277996 37507.930670 52379.319894 72287.733862 97836.691687 129100.535383 169780.684087
2025-02-02 25287.833186 37206.755815 52480.363306 73082.472061 99700.392719 132464.223175 175322.154241
2025-02-09 24635.059393 36693.805685 52284.142512 73475.157239 101040.680746 135171.977750 180056.083006
2025-02-16 23862.828332 35991.956317 51815.530923 73491.394852 101882.078972 137245.050431 183997.424692
2025-02-23 23256.010155 35496.702136 51602.964295 73828.412004 103127.591445 139826.375002 188587.085114
2025-03-02 22570.807839 34870.133879 51194.444772 73888.167799 103999.771140 141927.894594 192573.835198